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Statistics · Hypothesis testing

Chapter 1 · 3

The idea

Hypothesis tests for the Poisson distribution

Testing a claim about a mean rate λ: hypotheses written in λ, the Poisson tail as the measure of surprise, rescaling λ to the interval actually observed, one- and two-tailed critical regions with their actual significance levels, why a count of zero sometimes can never be significant, and tests that use a Poisson approximation to a binomial.

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Statistics · Hypothesis testing

Hypothesis tests for the Poisson distribution

Testing a claim about a mean rate λ: hypotheses written in λ, the Poisson tail as the measure of surprise, rescaling λ to the interval actually observed, one- and two-tailed critical regions with their actual significance levels, why a count of zero sometimes can never be significant, and tests that use a Poisson approximation to a binomial.

Why it works

A busy ten seconds, or a radioactive pebble?

A Geiger counter in a school laboratory picks up background radiation. It clicks at random, at a mean rate of 33 every 1010 seconds. Mia holds a granite pebble next to it and counts 77 clicks in 1010 seconds. Is the pebble radioactive, or was that just a busy ten seconds?

A Poisson count has no number of trials, so there is no proportion pp to test. The parameter is the mean rate λ\lambda, and both hypotheses are written in it:

H0:λ=3,H1:λ>3.H_0: \lambda = 3, \qquad H_1: \lambda > 3.

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