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Statistics · Data presentation

Chapter 1 · 4

The idea

Exponential models and regression

Fitting y = ab^x and y = ax^n to data by taking logs to get a straight line, then reading the constants off a regression line of log y on x (or on log x), and using the model to predict.

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Statistics · Data presentation

Exponential models and regression

Fitting y = ab^x and y = ax^n to data by taking logs to get a straight line, then reading the constants off a regression line of log y on x (or on log x), and using the model to predict.

Why it works

Straightening a curve with logs

The regression tool only knows how to draw straight lines — but lots of real data isn't straight. Populations, investments and radioactive samples follow exponential laws y=abxy = ab^x, and many physical relationships follow power laws y=axny = ax^n. The fix is not to change the tool but to change the axes: take logarithms, and these curves become straight lines you can regress.

The exponential model y = abˣ

Take logs of both sides and compare with Y=mX+cY = mX + c:

log⁡y=log⁡a+xlog⁡b\log y = \log a + x\log b

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The rest of the explanation, plus 3 worked examples you step through move by move.

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