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Statistics · Probability

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Set notation for events

Writing events with set notation — intersection ∩, union ∪ and complement ′ — matching each to a region of a Venn diagram, and the probability rules that go with them (P(A′) = 1 − P(A), P(A ∩ B′) = P(A) − P(A ∩ B)).

Statistics · Probability

Set notation for events

Writing events with set notation — intersection ∩, union ∪ and complement ′ — matching each to a region of a Venn diagram, and the probability rules that go with them (P(A′) = 1 − P(A), P(A ∩ B′) = P(A) − P(A ∩ B)).

Why it works

An event is just a set of outcomes, so the language of sets gives a precise, compact way to describe combinations of events. Three symbols do almost all the work:
  • Intersection ABA \cap B — outcomes in both AA and BB ("AA and BB").
  • Union ABA \cup B — outcomes in AA or BB or both ("AA or BB").
  • Complement AA' — outcomes not in AA ("not AA").
These build up into any region you like. ABA \cap B' is "in AA but not BB"; (AB)(A \cup B)' is "in neither AA nor BB"; ABA' \cap B' is the same region (this is one of De Morgan's laws, (AB)=AB(A \cup B)' = A' \cap B'). The reliable way to read a complicated expression is to shade it on a Venn diagram one piece at a time.ξ(A ∪ B)′ABA ∩ B′A ∩ BA′ ∩ BEach symbol comes with a probability rule:
  • Complement: P(A)=1P(A)P(A') = 1 - P(A) — the outcomes split into AA and not-AA.
  • "Only AA": P(AB)=P(A)P(AB)P(A \cap B') = P(A) - P(A \cap B) — take all of AA and remove the
overlap with BB.
  • Union (the addition rule): P(AB)=P(A)+P(B)P(AB)P(A \cup B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A \cap B) — the overlap
is counted twice when you add, so subtract it once.

Filling in a Venn diagram is usually the cleanest method: work out the intersection first, then subtract to get the "only AA" and "only BB" regions, and finally the "outside" region so all four add to 11.