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Statistics · Probability

Chapter 1 · 3

The idea

Calculating probabilities and sample space

Probability as the proportion of equally likely outcomes that are favourable; listing the sample space (including for two dice and two-way tables); the fact that probabilities of all outcomes sum to 1, and the complement rule P(A′) = 1 − P(A); and the difference between theoretical probability and experimental (relative frequency) probability.

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Statistics · Probability

Calculating probabilities and sample space

Probability as the proportion of equally likely outcomes that are favourable; listing the sample space (including for two dice and two-way tables); the fact that probabilities of all outcomes sum to 1, and the complement rule P(A′) = 1 − P(A); and the difference between theoretical probability and experimental (relative frequency) probability.

Why it works

Counting equally likely outcomes

A probability measures how likely an event is, on a scale from 00 (impossible) to 11 (certain). When every outcome of an experiment is equally likely,

P(event)=outcomes in the eventtotal possible outcomesP(\text{event}) = \frac{\text{outcomes in the event}}{\text{total possible outcomes}}

The list of all possible outcomes is the sample space. Getting the probability right almost always comes down to listing — or counting — the sample space correctly.

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